Ask supporters of Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe and the United National Front for Good Governance (UNFGG), headed by his United National Party (UNP), and they would say that it's an election to consolidate the nation's gains from the January polls. Ask rival Rajapaksa's supporters in the Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP)led United People's Democratic Alliance (UPFA), and to them, it is a redefining election, an occasion and opportunity for the nation to correct the anti-development mandate of the January polls that he had lost, and with that, the nation, its sense of security and sovereignty , too.
The truth however lies in between.If the pre-poll predictions come true, then Sri Lanka would face a hung Parliament. In the absence of an anti-defection law, poaching may well play a decisive role.
But how far and how fast would floor-crossing happen? In the past, even when President Rajapaksa was ruling the roost, cross-overs took time, though not as much as before. Yet, only a day after Rajapaksa lost, 20-25 MPs belonging to his party-led alliance announced their decision to cross over.And many of them landed ministerial positions.
Most pre-poll predictions take the presidential polls as the starting point.In January, the victor polled some 500,000 votes more than the vanquished -6.21 million against 5.8 million. Transposing the figures in electoral districts, a Sri Lankan newspaper predicted 105 seats for the Sirisena combine, of which Ranil's UNP was the mainstay , against 96 for the rival, in a House of 225 members. Others had predicted 87 elected seats for the latter against 73 for the former -after providing for some possible shifts and changes, in between. Rajapaksa's January voteshare does put his camp ahead of the Ranil-led UNFGG in certain calculations, despite the antipathy of leaders from within his UPFA -former President Chandrika Kumaratunga and present President Maithripala Sirisena.
It would be interesting to see how key factors that played a role in January pan out on Monday . An imponderable is the influence of Sinhala-nationalist outfits of BBS-BJP that likely turned the Muslim votes against Rajapaksa then. Another is Douglas Devananda's EPDP , which is contest ing alone in the Tamil north this time, where the UPFA has no hopes of winning any other seat independently .
Similar is the case with the Ceylon Workers Congress (CWC), the traditional party of upcountry Tamils, which has lost much charm under former minister Arumugan Thondaman, grandson of party-founder, the late Soumyamurthy Thondaman.CWC would require UPFA's Sinhala votes in its strongholds. Against this, splinter groups of upcountry Tamils sound stronger in UNFGG's company .But their leaders would want Sri Lankan Tamils -ethnic brothers, but a different political grouping -to support them in urban centres like Colombo's Wellawatta area, also , known as little Jaffna.
All these shifts and changes are there and for real. Among those that n backed Sirisena, the Sri Lankan iTamil (SLT) community accounted , for a total of 450,000 votes in the north r and east. The Tamil Nationalist Alli ance (TNA), representing the SLT e community in a big way , had 14 seats . in the outgoing Parliament - down by a one after the lone Sinhala member, , elected in the 2010 polls, defected to s the Rajapaksa camp.y. Most pollsters have predicted an i increase for TNA - going as far up to t 21 seats. However, the TNA received a o rude-shock when the party's muche respected Northern Province chief o minister C V Wigneswaran announced his neutrality and sent out repeated signals asking Tamil voters to choose `principled candidates'.
The retired Justice of the nation's Supreme Court sought to give the impression that he wanted voters to choose TNA but exercise freedom over candidates. But many feel that Wigneswaran may be signalling a soft corner for emerging rival, Tamil People's National Front (TPNF) of Gajendra Kumar Ponnambalam, scion of one-time political voice of the community , the late C G Ponnambalam.
A third Tamil combine, of exLTTE cadres, under the banner of Crusaders for Democracy (CDF) is also in the field, though only in the Tamil heartland of Jaffna district in the north. It is unclear as to whose vote would the CDF split between the other two alliances.
The other electoral impondera bles on the northern front include the votes that the All-Ceylon MakkalMuslim Congress (ACMC) would poll in the Vanni electoral district in particular. Alongside the TNA, the party had voted for Sirisena in January . Unlike the TNA, the party is at present aligned to the UNP . So is the Sri Lanka Muslim Congress (SLMC) in the east.The question also remains how the substantial section of SLT community in the national capital of Colombo would vote.
Should the UNGFF come on the top of the heap but without an absolute majority , TNA is considered a favourite for extending outside support -though some party veterans would want to have a go at government and ministerial positions. The TNA is under tremendous pressure already from hardline sections of the SLT diaspora not to join or support any government.
On the Sinhala side, the left-leaning, one-time militant Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP) had backed Sirisena in January , but is contesting independently now . Pollsters have consistently given the JVP 12-15 seats, and their votes could come from both the anti-Rajapaksa and the traditional anti-establishment camp that the UNFGG and Ranil represent now.
(timesofindia.indiatimes.com)
