The UNP-led alliance firmly believes he will make it easily, but ex-president Mahinda Rajapaksa is posing a serious challenge with his popularity among a majority of the Sinhalese.

BBC’s Azam Ameen reports that the first challenge faced by Wickremesinghe is the possibility of disagreement among the groups supporting him, as they are having divergent political views.

Patali Champika Ranawaka, Ven. Athuraliye Rathana Thera, Dr. Rajitha Senaratne, Rauff Hakeem, Risath Bathiudeen, Digambaram, Mano Ganeshan got together at the president election, but later on there have been disagreements among them due to their diverse ideologies.

A future UNP regime could wobble due their trying to satisfy the different ethnic groups they represent.

Rural vote base

People believe Wickremesinghe is not a leader close to the people.

During the six months he has been the PM, he had tried to get closer to the people, but compared to the close Rajapaksa-people relationship, he is lagging way behind.

Rural votes make a big impact at elections, and if he wants to attract them, Wickremesinghe will have to give a tough fight to Rajapaksa.

Wickremesinghe talks to the intellect of the people, while Rajapaksa speaks more closely to the hearts of the masses.

As in the past, sensitivity of the Lankan society could mean Wickremesinghe finding that quite a challenge.

Rajapaksa is also adept at attracting the majority Sinhala Buddhist votes, while Wickremesinghe’s connection with them is comparatively low.

As most minority parties are supporting the PM, the opposition has been targeting the Sinhala majority.

However, the recent remarks by Mahanayake Theras regarding the administration of the ex-president could be advantageous to Wickremesinghe.

Rajapaksa’s commitment for rural development

It was under the Rajapaksa regime that the renovation of rural roads was expedited, but Wickremesinghe’s tenure found the process slowing down.

There may have been acceptable practical issues, but the opposition could well highlight them rather as an inability of the UNP leader.

CB bond issue

The Central Bank bond issue has shaken the public belief that Wickremesinghe is a clean political leader.

The PM could be at a disadvantage over the recent remarks by the president regarding that issue, that Wickremesinghe did not act although he had called for the resignation of the CB governor.

The CB bond issue would be the mostly used issue against Wickremesinghe at the election campaign.

The PM-appointed committee to probe the matter is coming under severe criticism.

Also, his statements regarding punishing the wrongdoers are unlikely to become popular issues and could well be used against him.

The JVP’s allegations that Wickremesinghe has been protecting wrongdoers of the Rajapaksa regime too, could be used against him.

It is difficult to say if the UNP-led front would be able to win a parliamentary majority at the polls.

The support of various political forces and the blessings of president Sirisena are in his favour for Wickremesinghe to return as the PM, but the main challenge before him thereafter will be how to keep stable a parliament which includes Rajapaksa.