It’s all because of politics in Tamil society. The TNA with 16 members elected to parliament has a clearly articulated though unwritten mandate to keep the SLFP with its de facto leader Rajapaksa out of power. It will have to see the UNP government continues. The equation is such, TNA does not need to even vote with the Wickramasinghe government on any issue to keep it afloat. Abstaining from voting leaves the Opposition with only 103 the most, even if EPDP boss Douglas Devananda votes with opposition.
That’s just the technical beginning in post poll Sri Lanka. What thereafter politically evolves is no easy track for a 60 month marathon. Both for the government and the opposition that would basically be the TNA. Political parties and their candidates, especially in the Southern Sinhala constituency are heavily backed by big and black business and therefore extremely corrupt. These politicians cannot even breathe without State power and have within just 48 hours worked out modalities for a “coalition” between the two major Sinhala power blocs. That’s the UNP voted into government with marginal power and the SLFP with Rajapaksa that had a near miss with 3.2 per cent votes less, all because President Sirisena played foul with them.
Common Candidate Sirisena since elected as president on January 08, started off in open conflict with Rajapaksa who clearly was not going to leave political power. Looked upon as a “betrayer of the party” for being with the UNP as presidential candidate, Sirisena was obviously not supported by the SLFP majority in parliament. His truck with the Sinhala racist outfit the JHU proved a chaos in governance. The much hyped 100 Day programme and the “Reforms” promised, thus had to be taken up by the new government after elections. In fact that was what the people were told when elections were declared.
Sinhala South, especially its urban middle class therefore applauds such opportunism and justifies this “marriage of convenience” between the UNP and the President Sirisena group as necessary to carry on the “January 08 mandate”. For them who wanted to keep Rajapaksa out of power for Constitutional and electoral “Reforms” this “coming together” is a necessary continuation of the January 08 presidential poll “mandate”.
Contradictions are massive in this new government formation, despite good governance promises made by political leaders and the colourful façade that the media erects for the people. First, the decision by the SLFP Central Committee (CC) presided by President Sirisena has no hold and authority over the actual party. This CC that met two days after the election is one President Sirisena assembled for his convenience. Second, that decision by Sirisena’s CC of the SLFP was not endorsed by the UPFA in which the SLFP is a partner. Most other UPFA member parties have opposed the decision to go along with the UNP. Former president Mahinda Rajapaksa who returned to parliament this time as a MP elect from Kurunegala district, has taken a very calculated decision to play national politics giving up the post of Leader of the Opposition to any other senior. His promise is to intervene in issues of national importance like “national security”. That carries many meanings and many threats for the future.
For this new government that does not have de-militarisation, return of Northern land grabbed by security forces, release of detainees held without charges, repeal of the PTA (now that “terrorism” is defeated and eliminated) and full implementation of the LLRC recommendations in their good governance programme, Rajapaksa will be the Sinhala “watch dog”. Yet the UNP is expected to play fair by the Tamil people. The TNA crossed the line quite early in offering support to PM Wickramasinghe. Dominated by the Federal Party (ITAK) the TNA leadership has walked a big circle round to come back to where “Thanthai” Chelva failed in the 1950’s and 60’s and was overtaken by armed Tamil militancy.
They, the new government and the TNA leadership will thus be caught tight in the claws of a large pincer. Despite what the UNP and the SLFP write into their MoU to cool off people, this is a government that’s hard and firm on their already declared commitment to establish a “Unitary” State. A Unitary State in this present Sri Lanka can only be a Sinhala State with Buddhism at its pinnacle. With the 19 Amendment allowing a “national” government to have as many Cabinet ministers, State ministers and Deputy ministers as they wish (that in fact is the purpose of calling this “national”) many more getting into the Cabinet from Sirisena’s SLFP, he will not be the “neutral” impartial president he vowed he would be. In a pickle of a government that this would be, Rajapaksa era corruption and crimes will not have priority anymore. Investigations already begun will gradually go under a cold shower. The SLFP entry into the government would also make the Sinhala extremist JHU minister Champika feel strong and will be a sore thumb for Wickramasinghe to work with. With such a collage of a cabinet, this Sirisena-Wickramasinghe government will be hard pressed to find an exit route, when the UNHRC Report on Sri Lanka is officially handed over to the Colombo government, before it is taken up at the September sessions in Geneva.
On the Tamil side, the TNA even now has accusations brought up by the Jaffna society for not adequately taking up issues against the Wickramasinghe government. Key ministry in the government that impacts on Northern Tamil lives, the defence ministry held by President Sirisena is no turf Wickramasinghe can trespass upon. Since Sirisena’s election to Presidency in January, a total of 19 Tamil men and women had been taken into custody at the Bandaranayke International Airport (BIA), Katunayake and remanded without bail. Five of them including a young woman were arrested during the last days of this election. In such context, the TNA will be caught in the pincer, with this government avoiding answers even on their own promise of an independent domestic investigation on war crimes and related issues. TNA leadership still stands on its earlier position to back any international inquiry into war crimes and will have to stay with it. Which means to say, the TNA leadership will not be able to sit together with the Wickramsinghe government on the UNHRC Report on Sri Lanka when Prince Zeid ra’ad al Hussein as UNHR Commissioner makes it available to the government.
Come September, the new Wickramasinghe government will therefore have to face a new Rajapaksa, who would come out strong against the UNHRC Report and would be backed by most in the cabinet itself. Apart from SLFP, Wickramsinghe and most others in his party don’t share a common stand on the Sri Lankan Tamil issue. September would therefore tell how stable this government is, to continue with its slim majority yet again dependent on President Sirisena. But Sirisena will not be the one who would call the shots in the SLFP. Rajapaksa has already indicated he would intervene in nationally important issues and he would not limit himself to parliamentary protests. This would therefore work out as the logical extension of the chaotic 100 day rule of the Sirisena-Wickramsinghe pre election government and we would have to have our fingers crossed on promised “Yahapalanaya”.
Kusal Perera
Colombo
21 August, 2015
(kusalperera.blogspot.com)
