Data on Comex, a designated marketplace of the US-based CME Group, shows maximum build-up of positions in the $1,300 call option which expires in 11 days, implying that traders are bullish about prices rising to that level. If their call goes right, the option's price will increase, earning them a profit, and vice versa.
The $1,300 call option's price has risen from a low of $1 three weeks ago to $6.20 intraday Friday. The option's open interest (OI) -traders' outstanding positions -jumped from 11,702 contracts on Wednesday to 13,087 contracts on Thursday as its price rose, indicating a buildup of bullish bets.
OI for the $1,200 put option -signalling the bearish bets and where maximum trader activity in puts is concentrated -was 3,495 contracts on Friday intraday, when the option's price hit a low of $2.50.
Gold futures on Comex also posted a jump in OI from 178,496 on Wednesday to 192,777 contracts on Thursday, during which the metal's price rose $30 an ounce to $1,264.8.
A rise in price accompanied by an increase in OI is a bullish build-up. The local price on commodity bourse MCX, tracking the trend on Comex, rose 0.8% to . 27,443 per 10 gm over two trading sessions ` through Friday intraday. A stronger rupee capped the price.
"A rise to $1,300 temporarily is probable," said Joy Alukkas, CMD of the Kerala-based jewellery company.
Ketan Shroff, MD of Penta Gold, a bullion dealer-cum refiner based in Mumbai, said fresh demand, tipped to commence from next week for the wedding season through March, would be hit if prices remain above . 25,500 ` 26,500.
However, most analysts expect any jump to be tem porary in nature.
"There are threats of de flation looming over the Eu rozone and exit of Greece from the common currency imulus by ropean Central area plus a stimulus by ropean Central Bank (ECB) which are positives for gold. On the other hand, a likely stimulus by ECB would weaken the euro against the dollar.The dollar could also strengthen if the Fed decides to raise interest rates later this month. A stronger dollar will be a negative for gold," said Gnanasekar Thiagarajan, director, Commtrendz, a commodity research company.
(Economic Times)
